Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 192.665261 229.242327 273.000164 329.841362 402.666818 494.153143 6.199087e+02
2025-09-21 149.902055 193.816423 252.476067 338.770695 466.450907 655.292318 9.700488e+02
2025-09-28 122.613711 167.590341 232.372355 336.541164 508.290939 797.644788 1.366806e+03
2025-10-05 111.346601 159.762681 234.335673 364.498752 602.651965 1060.449640 2.138543e+03
2025-10-12 101.878605 152.116908 233.943096 387.202972 694.960470 1364.649423 3.256675e+03
2025-10-19 93.437693 144.239640 230.997928 403.792349 781.152555 1704.428219 4.843984e+03
2025-10-26 85.664078 136.000697 225.503617 413.574866 856.504381 2066.502595 7.030810e+03
2025-11-02 78.363861 127.371405 217.540625 415.992890 915.807698 2427.998241 9.910654e+03
2025-11-09 70.958010 117.484571 205.438081 406.373026 941.250176 2707.358700 1.308911e+04
2025-11-16 64.650679 108.803420 194.304693 396.329485 962.263976 2993.224934 1.722549e+04
2025-11-23 59.160576 101.003906 183.779460 385.361627 977.014778 3273.755897 2.249589e+04
2025-11-30 58.013452 101.396454 190.284794 417.978025 1141.925056 4376.308120 4.286334e+04
2025-12-07 54.485420 96.825968 185.782231 422.181690 1220.104031 5200.451895 7.000785e+04
2025-12-14 51.947033 93.977204 184.710645 435.771074 1342.181271 6491.627694 1.346992e+05
2025-12-21 48.638005 89.153608 178.393243 432.927464 1400.685086 7504.928531 2.336466e+05
2025-12-28 48.012676 89.917822 185.327550 471.653236 1661.736483 10744.565825 8.468191e+05
2026-01-04 46.930739 89.552408 189.463408 503.283955 1919.974839 14995.854603 4.505449e+06
2026-01-11 45.472566 88.176150 190.836800 526.503891 2159.838870 20305.739407 5.701396e+07
2026-01-18 43.704506 85.900025 189.527352 540.239080 2363.539960 26496.869533 6.556011e+10
2026-01-25 41.677948 82.819224 185.631983 543.638979 2512.031966 33016.282808 NaN
2026-02-01 39.215300 78.489620 177.773044 530.124451 2542.549849 37450.968378 NaN
2026-02-08 36.946025 74.433559 170.199232 516.047610 2562.549315 42164.951058 NaN
2026-02-15 34.828194 70.571019 162.725852 500.714253 2565.259561 46806.708049 NaN